The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports a 62 per cent probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026 and persisting through the end of the year, with multi-model guidance from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society indicating probabilities rising to 70–80 per cent later in the forecast period. Forecast models indicate central Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies consistent with weak to moderate El Niño thresholds, while the Bureau of Meteorology maintains ENSO-neutral conditions.
Forward Relevance: Increased likelihood of below-median rainfall and elevated temperature conditions across eastern and northern Australia, with exposure across agricultural production and water availability systems